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About the Project

GTA 6 Launch Truth is a community-driven experiment designed to track the real sentiment of gamers regarding the release date of Grand Theft Auto VI.

While official announcements set targets, the gaming community often has a different pulse on reality. This tool aggregates thousands of predictions to find the "Wisdom of Crowds" median date—a potentially more accurate predictor than corporate press releases.

How it Works

  • Vote: Lock in your gut-feeling prediction date.
  • Analyze: We calculate the median date from all verified predictions.
  • Compare: See how your prediction aligns with the community and the official timeline.

The Algorithm (Democratic & Fair)

We believe in giving everyone a voice, which is why we don't restrict the date field to just 10 or 20 years. All opinions are valid—if you genuinely believe GTA 6 won't launch for decades, you should be able to express that.

However, to ensure the community consensus reflects realistic sentiment, we use a weighted median algorithm. This means predictions closer to the official date have more influence than outlier predictions, while still counting everyone's voice.

1.0x
Near-term Predictions (Within 5 years of official date): Full weight - These predictions reflect near-term expectations
0.3x
Long-term Predictions (5-50 years out): Reduced weight - Valid but less likely scenarios
0.1x
Very Long-term Predictions (50+ years, up to 2100): Minimal weight - Still counted, but less influence on the median

Why this approach? This ensures the median reflects what the majority of the community believes, while still respecting every opinion. If you predict 2100 because you genuinely feel that pessimistic, your voice is heard—it just won't dramatically shift the community consensus away from more common predictions.

Status Explained

The status badge compares the community median prediction with Rockstar's official date (November 19, 2026).

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Gathering Data: Not enough predictions yet (need 50+ votes)
✓
On Track: Community predicts within 3 months of official date
⚠
Delay Likely: Community predicts 3-12 months after official date
✕
Major Delay Expected: Community predicts 12+ months after official date

Disclaimer: This is a fan-made project and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to Rockstar Games or Take-Two Interactive. All trademarks belong to their respective owners.

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